Hello everyone, and welcome to 111 Archer Avenue. What started as a film review blog has become my online judgment forum. I will review the occasional movie or DVD, post an interesting trailer, critique a newly-read book, talk about sports, and share my thoughts and opinions on random issues. You can also follow me on Twitter (@OlieCoen) or check out my work on DVDTalk.com. Thank you and enjoy!

Friday, August 23, 2013

Sports - Fantasy Football Part 1

With a lot of Fantasy Football Drafts taking place this weekend, people are truly ready for some football.  This weekend's games will tell us a lot about each team and about each player's fantasy outlook, as they are basically dress rehearsals for the upcoming season.  So get your cheat sheets ready, rank your players, and prepare to draft!  Here are Olie's Fantasy Predictions, based on my top secret and highly coveted Super Spreadsheets.  Let the games begin!

  • Drew Brees #1 - Your league might not draft quarterbacks early, but Brees ought to be the first one taken, whatever round you choose to pull the trigger in.  With HC Sean Payton back, the Saints will be a high flying, quick scoring offense that puts up a ton of points.  Brees benefits the most from that, and so will your team if you draft him as the first QB overall.
  • Peyton & Tom - Last year Manning had the question marks and Brady was the solid pick.  Brady ended up with better overall stats, but not this year.  Peyton has Wes Welker, a better understanding of the offense, and a year of rehab on his neck.  Tom lost all his toys.  He'll still produce, but Peyton will have the better fantasy season.
  • Kaepernicking - Colin Kaepernick was a postseason sensation and will be drafted too highly.  I think he'll struggle a little bit this year, now that he's not taking everyone by surprise.  Don't overpay for his late season numbers; you'll regret it when he isn't a fantasy stud.
  • Lost their magic - Quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, and Michael Vick can't be counted on to be your #1 QB this season.  They've all had big years, but don't seem likely to repeat them any time soon.
  • QB by committee - That being said, a pair of those guys together on your fantasy team might just win you some games.  If you're willing to gamble, this could be the year that having two mediocre quarterbacks could be your ticket to the postseason.  You'd have to play the matchups and then get very lucky, but it worked last year for some people and it could work again.
  • AP All Day - Adrian Peterson will be the #1 overall pick in a lot of drafts this weekend, but don't get too excited.  No RB that rushed for 2,000 yards has ever rushed for more then 1,500 the next season.  Now, he still scores a bunch of TDs and will still rack up yardage, but don't believe him when he says he's gonna break the all-time record this season.
  • Stephen Jackson in Hotlanta - The Falcons have a new RB and there's reason to be excited if you're a fantasy owner.  Michael Turner has been consistently putting up points in Atlanta for years, often quietly and under the radar.  Stephen Jackson will do the exact same.  He'll score TDs, get yards, and give you a very solid source of points each week.
  • Run DMC - Every year the buzz is that Darren McFadden is about to break records.  He has the talent to do it easily.  But injury problems and a bad team always hold him down.  With a return to the man-blocking scheme that he prefers, there's a chance this year that he puts up huge numbers.  But don't pay for a chance; take him late and be pleasantly surprised.
  • The Law Firm - Stay clear of BenJarvis Green-Ellis.  Not only did he have a disappointing season last year, but rookie RB Giovani Bernard is poised to take away a lot of his fantasy points.  Green-Ellis is still #1 in Cinci, but that could change at any point this season.
  • Pittsburgh Problems - And stay clear of any Steelers running back.  Le'Veon Bell seemed poised to be fantasy relevant, but with his injury the staring spot is wide open.  Pittsburgh has a ton of adequate backs to take his place, but that's not a good thing in the fantasy world.  They could play the hot hand or do a backfield by committee, the black hole of fantasy points.
  • Megatron - Don't be nervous about picking Calvin Johnson.  His TD numbers were bad last year and his yardage was other-wordly.  This year order will be restored; less yards, more touchdowns, a ton of fantasy points.  Last season he was tackled on the 1-yard-line four times.  Talk about bad luck, for the Lions and for you.  But this year normalcy returns.
  • The Lambeau Leap - There are some new star WRs in Green Bay, and you can feel free to draft any of them.  They might all score 8 TDs and be similar in yardage.  Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones; any of the three will be a solid #2 WR for your fantasy team.
  • Mile High Salute - The same can be said for Peyton Manning's weapons in Denver, with only slightly more disparity.  Demaryius Thomas will be the stud, Wes Welker will be the yards guy, and Eric Decker will be somewhere in between.  Draft any of the three with confidence.
  • Former Superstars - A few guys who've put up some great numbers before won't repeat them this year.  Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson; don't expect big things from them, and don't draft them as more than your #3 receiver.
  • Undraftables - There are some teams with some hype, but don't overspend to get their players.  WRs from Tennessee, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and even Seattle won't be worth much this season, even if their teams seem to be trending up.  Stick with proven talent unless you find yourself able to take a gamble in a late round with a receiver who has upside.

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