Hello everyone, and welcome to 111 Archer Avenue. What started as a film review blog has become my online judgment forum. I will review the occasional movie or DVD, post an interesting trailer, critique a newly-read book, talk about sports, and share my thoughts and opinions on random issues. You can also follow me on Twitter (@OlieCoen) or check out my work on DVDTalk.com. Thank you and enjoy!

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Sports - Fantasy Football Part 2

With a lot of Fantasy Football Drafts taking place this weekend, people are truly ready for some football.  This weekend's games will tell us a lot about each team and about each player's fantasy outlook, as they are basically dress rehearsals for the upcoming season.  So get your cheat sheets ready, rank your players, and prepare to draft!  Here are Olie's Fantasy Predictions, based on my top secret and highly coveted Super Spreadsheets.  Let the games begin!

  • Jimmy Graham is all alone - With Rob Gronkowski perhaps missing the first couple weeks of the season, Graham becomes the only TE worth an early pick.  He might be the only one who goes over 1,000 yards and/or two digit TDs.  If you get Drew Brees, make sure to also grab Jimmy Graham.
  • Witten woes - Don't draft Jason Witten hoping for a lot of scores.  He's no longer a huge redzone target, and he no longer gets many TDs.  He'll deliver more yards than most TEs, so draft him if your league gives a lot of points for yardage.  But otherwise, let him fall.
  • Hidden gems - As you make your way down the list of fantasy relevant TEs, there's not too much to get excited about.  After the first few superstars you have a bunch of mediocrity.  But there are a couple buy low options; Jared Cook, Brandon Myers, and Martellus Bennett.  Those guys won't blow your mind, but they will provide you with cheap TDs.
  • HEATH! - He's pretty seriously injured, but assuming Heath Miller returns healthy at some point this season he could actually be a sleeper pick.  There's no way to tell when he'll return, but it could be around week 6, 7, or 8.  If you can stash him late in the draft, or even get him on the Free Agent list, he could give you a quick boost.
  • Avoid the Eagles - Don't plan on taking a Philadelphia TE as your starer.  Neither Celek nor Ertz will get a lot of action in Chip Kelly's system.  Expect Vick, McCoy, and Jackson as usual, but don't expect a ton of redzone scores from either Eagle end.
  • Young Blood - The kids are scoring the points and are here to stay.  Walsh of the Vikings and Tucker of the Ravens are both the real deal, especially if your league gives extra points for 50+ yard field goals.  Neither kicker will get as many point-afters as Prater or Gostkowski, but points are in the field goals and these guys will deliver.
  • Escape from Cleveland - For years Phil Dawson was the best player on the whole Browns team, and now he's finally free.  His leg is still solid and the Niners will give him the opportunity to score and score often.  Super Bowl bound?  It's possible.
  • Akers - He might be old, but David Akers is alive and kicking.  Literally.  Now with the Lions, he has the chance to put up some points.  Not a ton, but a solid amount.  If the Lions rebound and have a great season, they'll take Akers right along with them.
  • Sea Bass - He's had a great career, but Sebastian Janokowski's day in the sun might be over.  The Raiders are just a bad team, and they don't get near the endzone often enough to draft their kicker.  He'll still get a few FGs, but he might have the least extra points of any kicker this year.
  • Don't overpay - There are no kickers that blow everyone else away.  There are also none that will sink you.  I'm not saying draft Caleb Sturgis as your starting kicker, but don't overpay for one of the top guys either.  Kickers can wait; some free agent might end up leading the league.
  • Da Bears - Chicago scored a ridiculous 10 defensive touchdowns last season.  And they only allowed 16 points per game.  A defense that can do that will get you a bunch of fantasy points.  Only problem is, that's hard to repeat.  Don't expect the exact same stat line, but draft them high.
  • Sleeper hold - If you're looking for a sleeper defense, look no further than St. Louis.  They might not be the first group that comes to mind when you think about smash-mouth football, but this defense will score you some points.  If you miss out on the big boys (San Fran, Seattle, Baltimore) you could do much worse than the Rams.
  • The Pack - Green Bay used to be a high scoring defense, literally.  They might allow a lot of points but they'd get defensive touchdowns to make up for it.  Last season they only scored 3 TDs, and this season shouldn't be much better.  They're not dynamic enough to get early.
  • The Bottom - Some defenses shouldn't even be drafted as backups: Tennessee, Oakland, Jacksonville.  Don't draft these teams; there are a ton of better options.  Namely, every other team in the league.
  • Draft early - Unlike kickers, there is a big difference between the top defenses and the bottom ones.  Don't be hesitant to take the team you want earlier than others do, or to jump on the bandwagon when defenses start to be selected.  Get one of the big dogs early and you won't be disappointed.

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